Virginia Peninsula Realtors® Market Report Key Takeaways
Economic Conditions
- The Virginia Peninsula region has experienced robust job growth over the past year which has supported a strong housing market. However, the region’s economy remains somewhat vulnerable to actions taken by the Federal government, including budget cuts and shutdowns.
- Mortgage interest rates remains at historically low levels. Potential homebuyers and sellers should expect rates to remain low, at least through the spring and into the summer.
Housing Market Conditions
- Sales activity surged 17% in the Virginia Peninsula footprint compared to this time last year, the fastest sales growth in nearly 3 years.
- Home prices moderated somewhat, and the 1st quarter median sales price remained flat compared to last year.
- Homes continue to sell faster in the Virginia Peninsula market compared to a year ago, a reflection of a low inventory of homes on the market and continued buyer demand.
- After more than 2 years of shrinking inventory, the level of active listings has increased for 3 consecutive quarters in the Virginia Peninsula region compared to last year, evidence of changing market conditions that could possibly start to impact prices in the coming months
October 2016 residential real estate sales performed steadily relative to prior year benchmarks, re balancing from a third quarter balloon and still reflecting high buyer demand. The value of transactions for October 2016 was $2.815 billion, up 1 percent from the same month in 2015 ($2.787 billion). Volume through the end of October 2016 exceeded $31.970 billion, a gain of 6.4 percent from last year’s accumulation of $30.050 billion.
The Virginia residential real estate market brought opportunity to both buyers and sellers in the third quarter of 2016. Both the total number of sales and the value of transactions rose from the same period last year, to 32,949 units and $10.821 billion, respectively. Volume – the sum of all transactions for July, August, and September of 2016 – was 5.8 percent higher than the same period last year, and 17.6 percent higher than the third quarter of 2014. Aggregate median sales price for this quarter was $270,000, an increase of 1.9 percent from the third quarter of 2015 ($265,000). The average number of days on the market dropped from prior year benchmarks to an average of 61 for the 2016 third quarter, 10.3 percent lower than last year’s third quarter average (68 days). Atypical of industry seasonality, the average length of time on the market decreased from the second quarter to the third. Historically, the second quarter, with peak summer sales activity, exhibits the fastest pace from listing to close. The decrease in days on the market year-over-year and from the preceding quarter reflects strong buyer motivation, compelled by limited inventory and continued access to low-cost financing.
August 2016 residential real estate sales have strengthened markedly relative to August of last year and brought strength back to the third quarter following a contracted July. The number of August transactions grew year-over-year by 12.5 percent, from 10,204 sales to 11,482. Atypical of industry seasonality, August 2016 sales were slightly higher than July sales; the market typically peaks in June and begins to taper through the end of the year. Greater August sales may reflect that more inventory has come onto the market, expanding buying opportunities and boosting sales and volume. Following seasonal tendency, August median price declined slightly month-over-month and from the June peak, but was 1.7 percent higher than in the same month last year ($272,500 over $268,000 in 2015). Average length of time on the market was significantly lower, declining 13 percent (from 69 days last August to 60 in August 2016). The value of transactions for August 2016 was $3.793 billion, a significant 14.8 percent jump from August 2015. Volume through the end of August 2016 exceeded $25.941 billion, a gain of 6.8 percent from last year’s accumulation of $24.294 billion. Year-to-date measures continue to build significantly upon 2015 and prior year performance.